Pac-10 preview
This is a preview for the upcoming PAC-10 season that I wrote for Chalk.com.
Pac-10
Arizona
In 2007 it took some time for Arizona’s offense to start getting the hang of coordinator Sonny Dykes’ air-it-out offense, but by the end of the year things started to click. The Wildcats ended the season with a 5-7 record (6-5 ATS) which included covering the final four games of the year and a three game winning streak (two games playing over) in late October through November where the offense hung 48 points on Washington, 34 on UCLA and 34 on Oregon. With ten starters returning on offense, this is a team that could put up a whole lot of points in a hurry once again. QB Willie Tuitama (3,682 yards) has just about all of his weapons returning including the addition of junior college transfer Derick Barkum. The defense has the potential to be decent and that could be enough for the Wildcats to reach their first bowl game since 1998.
Arizona State
Last season the Sun Devils unexpectedly rose to No. 6 in the country with an 8-0 start (covering six) before being outclassed down the stretch in double-digit losses to Oregon, USC, and Texas in the Holiday Bowl. In the end the Devils posted a 10-3 (6-7 ATS) which included failing to cover the spread in the final five games of the season. Now that head coach Dennis Erickson has momentum, he needs to parlay that into more speed and depth along both lines. The return of QB Rudy Carpenter (3,202 yards) provides stability, but to remain a favorite in the Pac-10, Arizona State needs to develop reinforcements on the offensive line and in the secondary. A Pac-Ten crown is dependent on whether the Sun Devils can snap an eight game losing streak against the Trojans, and beat either Cal or Oregon for a shot at a Rose Bowl bid.
California
You can almost break down 2007 into two very different seasons for the Bears. In the first, Cal beat Tennessee and upset Oregon to start out 5-0 start and a No. 2 national ranking. In the second, Cal fell off the map going 1-6 to end the regular season and barely qualifying for a bowl game. The Bears did beat Air Force as favorites in the Armed Forces Bowl, putting an end to seven straight ATS losses to finish 2007 at 7-6 (4-9 ATS). This year the first decision head coach Jeff Tedford is who will be the starting QB. Nate Longshore (2,566 yards) did not put up great numbers last year and Kevin Riley led the team to victory in the bowl game. The Bears catch a break in terms of schedule with only five road games; Washington State, Maryland, Arizona, USC and Oregon State.
Oregon
Oregon started the 2007 campaign with an 8-1 ATS record and looked like a gold mine for bettors. Then QB Dennis Dixon (2,129 yards) got hurt and the team lost their three final regular season games, failing to cover in all three. In 2008 head coach Mike Bellotti has two real question marks to answer and they are at quarterback and running back. How he replaces Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart will go along way in determining the fate of the Ducks this year. The good news is the Ducks have a solid offensive line that will give the new quarterback and running back plenty of opportunities. Can QB Justin Roper carry his gutsy play from the end of 2007 through a full season? Backers hope so because the schedule is full of tough tests including hosting Washington in the opener and road games at Purdue, USC, Arizona State, Cal and Oregon State.
Oregon State
The Beavers did not get off to a great start in 2007 but ended up providing a lot of value by season’s end. Rebounding from a ragged start, Oregon State went 7-1 SU and ATS to end the year, including an upset win over Oregon and an Emerald Bowl victory against Maryland. Looking ahead to 2008, head coach Mike Riley will first have to make a decision on his QB. After a disappointing first season as a starter, QB Sean Canfield (1,661 yards) now has to be looking over his shoulder at Lyle Moevao, who was 4-0 after taking over Canfield’s spot when he was hurt. Whoever gets the nod, they will have WR Sammie Stroughter to throw to since he was awarded an extra year of eligibility after a kidney issue. The non-conference schedule features a trip to Penn State, at home to face Hawaii and then back on the road to play Utah.
Stanford
Stanford is far from being one of the favorites in the Pac-10, but at least first-year coach Jim Harbaugh has helped bring a renewed energy to the program. The 2007 season saw the Cardinal put up a 4-8 record (5-7 ATS) and one of the most memorable wins in school history, a 24-23 upset of USC as a 40-point underdog. They also upset Cal to end the season giving backers something to look forward to in 2008. In order to reach a bowl game the defense will have to be better than ninth in the conference. And with nine starters returning to the unit, that should not be a problem. While Harbaugh sorts out a passing attack that lost their QB and two top receivers, RB Anthony Kimble (509 yards) will have to carry the offense. A schedule featuring seven road games might be too much to handle in 2008.
UCLA
With 20 starters returning, the Bruins 6-7 2007 season qualified them as one of the biggest underachievers of the year, costing head coach Karl Dorrell his job. The silver lining for bettors was a profitable 9-4 ATS record, including covering the spread in the last four games of the year. This season Rick Neuheisel replaces Dorrell and will be inheriting a roster that will be missing a ton of last year’s regulars. If Neuheisel can get QB Ben Olson (1,040 yards) to max out his potential (and stay healthy), it will make this rebuilding season at UCLA that much better. The good news for backers is that the Bruins now have a superb coaching staff. The bad news is their schedule. Three of their first four games are against top 25 teams: Tennessee, BYU and Fresno State. This could be too brutal a schedule for such a young team to handle.
USC
In 2007 the Trojans posted a 11-2 record (7-6 ATS), won a sixth Pac-10 title in-a-row and bombed Illinois 49-17 in the Rose Bowl. Despite all of this, there was still a hollow feeling on campus due to the lack of a national title. After losing 10 players to the NFL, Pete Carroll’s Trojans look even stronger in 2008. Mark Sanchez (695 yards) becomes the team’s full-time starter at quarterback and he will be tossing to an arsenal of receivers that includes Patrick Turner, David Ausberry and Vidal Hazelton. For the Trojans to be successful the offense only has to be adequate because the defense is strong. Last year’s unit finished second overall in college football, giving up only 16 points per game (USC played under 10 times). USC’s title chances should be answered in the second week of the season when they play host Ohio State.
Washington
After getting bettors attention with a 2-0 ATS start including an upset of Boise State, the Huskies proved to be a tease, failing to cover in five of its next six games, and eventually finishing alone in the Pac-10 cellar with a 4-9 overall record. Head coach Tyrone Williams enters his fourth year knowing the team needs to get better and the best hope for improvement lies with the offense. QB Jake Locker (2,062 yards) is a superstar in the making and the offense will jump forward if Locker can better last year’s stats. But to do so he must throw to a young group of receivers that include the prize of this year’s recruiting class Chris Polk. The schedule will force this young squad to mature fast. The Huskies open on the road in Oregon and then follow with difficult home games against BYU and Oklahoma.
Washington State
In 2007 an 0-4 start (1-3 ATS) to the conference schedule ended any hope of a postseason run. Despite finishing the year 5-7 and covering four of the final five games, it was not good enough for head coach Bill Doba to keep his job. New head coach Paul Wulff hopes his seven winning seasons in eight years at Eastern Washington University transfers over. Redshirt senior Gary Rogers currently has the edge at quarterback but transfer Kevin Lopina is a better fit for Wulff’s no-huddle, spread offense. The wide-open attack should benefit returning receiver Brandon Gibson (1,180 yards). Last season’s leading rusher, Dwight Tardy (676 yards), returns to the backfield as well. Matching last seasons record will be difficult with USC, Oregon, California, and Arizona State on the schedule. A bowl invitation might be asking a little too much in Coach Wulff’s first year.
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